Recent Bitcoin Performance
• Amid deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin has managed to buck the broader market trend and rise above $30,000 on April 11.
• Since the November 2021 top, Bitcoin posted a peak-to-trough loss of 78% – bottoming at $15,500 in November 2022.
• The collapse of FTX triggered a downward spiral affecting other CeFi platforms and further exposing parts of the industry as an interconnected house of cards.
Explanation for Recent Rally
Research Analyst Dylan LeClair believes that Bitcoin’s recent rally is due to the growing understanding that trustlessness is the only way forward. LeClair explains that “Every four years, the fraud, the leverage, it gets completely wiped out” – leaving the market with majority believers holding for the long term. The Glassnode Open Interest chart shows that open futures derivatives contracts have dropped from 600,000 to 400,000 since November 2022 – indicating a shift towards holding BTC rather than trading it.
Inflation and Conflict Affecting Market
The leading cryptocurrency has faced significant headwinds since its November 2021 top – beginning with inflation and quantitative tightening in early 2022 followed by conflict in Eastern Europe in February 2022. In May 2022 came UST scandal which revealed LUNA ecosystem was a fraud from start – triggering a downward spiral across CeFi platforms.
Impact of Banking Collapses
Since banking collapses occurred on March 11th 2023, Bitcoin has grown 94%. This demonstrates a strong rally amid tough geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions as investors seek out trustless assets to hold for longterm gains.
Bitcoin’s recent performance demonstrates how trustlessness is becoming increasingly valued among investors who are seeking protection against counterparty risk amidst tough economic situations. As such more investors are choosing to hold BTC rather than speculate with futures contracts which could explain why open interest has been declining over time.